Increased supply of domestic and imported alumina, alumina spot prices stop rising [SMM Alumina Weekly Review]

SMM News on June 5:

Price Review:

As of Thursday this week, the SMM alumina index stood at 3,273.73 yuan/mt, down 0.78 yuan/mt from last Thursday. In Shandong, prices were reported at 3,220-3,300 yuan/mt, unchanged from last Thursday; in Henan, prices were at 3,250-3,360 yuan/mt, unchanged from last Thursday; in Shanxi, prices were at 3,250-3,330 yuan/mt, unchanged from last Thursday; in Guangxi, prices were at 3,250-3,330 yuan/mt, unchanged from last Thursday; in Guizhou, prices were at 3,250-3,350 yuan/mt, unchanged from last Thursday; in Bayuquan, prices were at 3,210-3,290 yuan/mt.

Overseas Market:

As of June 5, 2025, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $370/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $21.85/mt. The USD/CNY selling rate hovered around 7.20, translating to an equivalent external selling price at major domestic ports of approximately 3,268 yuan/mt, which was 5 yuan/mt lower than the domestic alumina price, indicating that the alumina import window had turned favorable. No new overseas spot alumina transactions were inquired about this week.

Domestic Market:

According to SMM data, as of Thursday this week, the total installed capacity of metallurgical-grade alumina nationwide was 110.82 million mt/year, with a total operating capacity of 87.27 million mt/year. The national weekly alumina operating rate increased by 0.54 percentage points WoW to 78.75%, primarily due to the resumption of production at some alumina facilities that had undergone maintenance or production cuts earlier. Specifically, the weekly alumina operating rate in Shandong decreased by 1.22 percentage points WoW to 88.07%; in Shanxi, it increased by 0.8 percentage points WoW to 70.60%; in Henan, it increased by 4.17 percentage points WoW to 60.00%; in Guangxi, it decreased by 0.57 percentage points WoW to 94.58%.

During the period, spot alumina transactions turned sluggish, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, and spot prices stopped rising.

Overall:

This week, the operating capacity of alumina increased by 600,000 mt/year to 87.27 million mt/year. It is understood that some imported alumina has arrived at Chinese ports. With supply recovering and no significant changes in demand, the total alumina inventory at aluminum smelters increased by 19,000 mt to 2.63 million mt this week. The import window remained favorable, and imported alumina supply is expected to increase in the future. In the short term, the alumina fundamentals may shift towards a relatively loose pattern, with spot alumina prices expected to remain in the doldrums. Continuous attention should be paid to changes in the capacity of domestic alumina enterprises and the supply of imported alumina.

Source: SMM

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